Projected Global Temperature Rise of Up to 3 Degrees

Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University, Sweden, warn that the world is on track for a temperature increase of 2.5–3 degrees Celsius, exceeding the Paris Agreement's 2-degree target. Their study highlights that limiting global warming to 2 degrees is feasible if major coal-consuming nations, particularly China and India, expedite their coal phase-out processes. However, current national commitments are deemed inadequate, and geopolitical issues further complicate efforts. The researchers analyzed pledges from 72 countries to phase out coal between 2022 and 2050. In the best-case scenario, global warming could be limited to 2 degrees if rapid coal reductions similar to those in the UK occur, requiring immediate action from China and India. However, the study suggests this is unlikely, as commitments remain weak across even the most ambitious countries, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may hinder compliance with commitments. Consequently, more realistic scenarios point towards a potential rise of 2.5–3 degrees. The research emphasizes the urgency for faster action and international cooperation to address equity concerns while transitioning away from coal to meet climate goals.



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